It’s about APPU and QoE, not ARPU

Traditionally, average revenue per user  has been one of the key metrics used to measure service providers’ financial performance. Increased competition has been putting downward pressure on ARPU, resulting in declining earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. In parallel, the volume of data traffic transmitted over wireless networks is increasing exponentially. Global mobile data traffic grew 74 percent in 2015, reaching 3.7 Exabytes per month at the end of 2015, up from 2.1 Exabytes per month at the end of 2014 . This is driven not only by the increase of new mobile applications, but also by the sheer number of connected devices. Smartphone subscriptions passed the billion mark in 2012; the four billion mark is expected to be reached by 2016. There will be more than 20 billion mobile-connected devices by 2020, including machine to machine modules, which will exceed the projected global population of 7.8 billion.

Current cellular networks may not have the capacity to meet this demand and the further expansion of coverage and densification will only add additional capital expense and operation expense without improving ARPU. To improve financial results, SPs must focus on the average profit per user  and look for ways to reduce operating costs while providing additional network coverage.

ACG Research conducted a business study of different technology penetrations on SPs’ networks. The scenario integrated untrusted Wi-Fi, trusted Wi-Fi, and small cell into the cellular network, which includes 2G, 3G and VoLTE voice traffic. The scenario compares different penetrations to identify the optimum plan that will optimize SPs’ APPU. The study found that this is only possible by increasing the amount of trusted Wi-Fi traffic and VoWi-Fi penetration, resulting in higher EBITDA margins and APPU, up to 9 percent, saving $3.83 billion for a 35.5 percent monthly increase of APPU over five years.

Read the entire article at RCRWireless News.

For more information about ACG’s services, contact info@acgcc.com.

Ray Mota

rmota@acgcc.com
www.acgcc.com

The 5G Wave of the Future

Today, congestion plagues low-frequency below 6GHz spectrum bands, which, consequently, not only makes it very difficult to add more capacity but also limits the number of antennas used (no more than two or three antennas).

The landscape, however, is much different in the high-frequency bands, usually known as the millimeter wave (mmW). The channels are much wider, reaching even 250MHz and multiples thereof in some bands (such as E-band), providing the needed capacity for 5G access and backhauling. In general, the mmW can request a wide availability of spectrum, which is a prerequisite for both access and backhaul. More antennas can be used (ranging from 4, 16 or even 32), resulting into beamforming that as it advances to shorter wavelengths allows for smaller antennas (including arrays needed for beamforming and beamsteering). Antenna directivity is much better in high frequencies, allowing a high spectral reuse factor. High-frequency radios can widely be used today and demand will continue to grow, especially for E-Band (80GHz) in dense areas where high capacity is needed. ACG anticipates that the momentum for E-Band will continue and will be preferred for new 5G (by 2020 or earlier) deployments technologies. (One in five links could be E-band in 2020.)

Regulation is the main enabler for high-frequency solutions adoption because by applying different licensing models it could encourage better use of spectrum, weighing in factors such as frequency bands, geographic region, and local microwave hop density. Ericsson recently described the multiband booster method, which could maximize spectrum efficiency, add new technologies that can exploit unused spectrum, and upgrade the capacity of microwave backhaul networks up to tenfold. This is a great option that has been used for years from other leading vendors as well but in most cases is still restricted by regulation.

Introducing and allowing wider channels in less deployed areas would further encourage the use of multiband solutions. Leo Macciotta, Huawei’s Senior Marketing Manager, highlights that “the challenges in capacity and latency requirements posed by LTE-A and in the future 5G make this kind of equipment the best and most cost-efficient choice for a future-proof deployment. Continuous investments in component, system and antenna technology provide a clear and dependable road map of improvement in performance such that we are confident that E-band will become one of the key building blocks of the future front- and back-haul networks for 5G and beyond.”

For access, most vendors could offer high modulation, wider channels, and multiple antennas (MIMO). The capacity offer varies between 2 and 4 Gbps full duplex, although some vendors are testing solutions in the lab that could go up to 10 Gbps in a range of a few kilometers. The MIMO types used today in most cases are 2x2 and 4x4 but could increase much higher along the 5G spec. This is not the case for backhaul; although the MIMO feature is offered, there is no real demand yet, but that might change beyond 2020.

E-band has recently come into mainstream use for mobile backhaul, allowing capacities of up to 10 Gbps over link lengths up to several km (even more than 10 km when bundled with lower frequency bearers) and is currently shipping in volume. Regarding backhauling, Yigal Leiba, co-founder and CTO of Siklu, mentioned that “a capacity of 2 Gbps could be enough today and possibly for the next 2 years for Mobile Operators and specifically for network aggregation layers and major Macro Base Stations backhauling, while 1Gbps street level backhaul could serve effectively Small Cells.” Looking to the future, the industry shares a vision of using frequencies above 100 GHz, as they will enable capacities in the 40 Gbps range over hop distances of about a kilometer but mostly for access. Regarding 5G and backhaul, there is already pressure, and leading vendors and major Tier 1 operators are worried that backhaul requirements may not be kept in the right considerations.

Tying the whole industry ecosystem together is the ETSI mWT (Millimetre Wave Transport) ISG, a common forum for component, subsystem and system manufacturers, telecommunications operators, and regulator. The forum promotes understanding and acceptance of mmW worldwide. With endorsements from such respected groups the future of these technologies looks promising.

    

    Elias Aranvantino

    earanvantino@acgcc.com

    www.acgcc.com

Tremendous Packet Core Momentum Fuels 2Q Worldwide Mobile Infrastructure Market, Surpasses $1 Billion

LTE-Advanced deployment, Packet Core deployments, VoWiFi trials and the high interest in end-to-end VoLTE solutions are driving the mobility market

The Worldwide Mobile Infrastructure market grew revenue in Q2 quarter over quarter. The Q2 Total Worldwide Mobile Infrastructure market surpassed $1 billion in revenues. The APAC region, mainly China, led this growth during this quarter, followed by EMEA. Mobile broadband net sales were primarily driven by overall radio technologies, specifically LTE. In the North American region the market managed to stabilize, helping most vendors to maintain flat revenues. Although most operators have completed their LTE deployments, it is anticipated that the fast-rising data traffic will definitely require further upgrades of U.S. wireless networks to add more capacity and avoid congestion experiences such as those recently witnessed in New York and Chicago, and generate opportunities for vendors.

Global mobile infrastructure spending posted single digit growth with most carriers adopting a “wait and see” status for new deployments and services. However, Packet Core, specifically EPC, grew in double digits and it is expected this growth will continue in the next quarters as operators modernize the network with new services. We anticipate more spending into EPC but also into virtual solutions, vEPC, in the coming quarters as the trials will start scaling up into commercial accounts. Services virtualization continues to gain traction because of the savings and the short time to market service delivery. More VoLTE and VoWiFi deployments are expected in the next quarters as most operators understand that these services are complementary and offer different benefits for indoor and outdoor support.

“There are three interesting points to note this quarter. The focus of Mobile IP Infrastructure spending has shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, coming mainly from China; the Evolved Packet Core market is the fastest growing segment. This trend will maintain momentum in the next quarters, and it will gain traction even more in North America with significant LTE network expansions,” states Elias Aravantinos, principal analyst, ACG Wireless and Mobility.

“The second point relates to another interesting trend related to the previous trend, the large scale of virtual service trials that are becoming commercial because operators have realized the savings and the advantages when virtualizing certain parts of the network. The first commercial Virtual EPC projects are expected to massively scale by the end of 2015. Finally, there is special focus on Voice over WiFi service adaptation and spending on the Evolved Packet Data Gateway or ePDG, which is a native part of this new infrastructure and ensures the call connectivity between the WiFi and the cellular network. Operators have already understood that there is no competition between VoWiFi and VoLTE and that these services complement, helping them to face coverage, traffic offload and churn issues,” says Aravantinos.

Click for more information about ACG’s mobility services or contact information@acgcc.com.

    Elias Aravantinos

    earavantinos@acgcc.com

    www.acgcc.com

Juniper and Ruckus: A Combination Sure to Shake Up the Unified Communications Market

This strategic alliance reinforces the inter-relatedness of the wireless market and portends disruption.

Juniper Networks, which has been looking for a unified communications solution for quite some time, recently announced its partnership with carrier/enterprise Wi-Fi hardware and software vendor Ruckus. The companies plan to offer solutions that pair Juniper’s EX Series Ethernet switches with Ruckus’ ZoneFlex Wi-Fi access points and SmartZone Wi-Fi management software to enterprise, government, and education clients. This alliance comes on the heels of another significant announcement: HP’s (Juniper Ethernet competitor) acquisition of Aruba Networks, which was Juniper’s partner since last year.

Juniper’s alliance with its interesting value proposition will pose significant competition to Cisco/Meraki and HP/Aruba and no doubt will shake up the expanding unified communications market. We believe that the Cisco/Meraki and HP/Aruba will maintain strengths as they do have extensive wired and wireless offerings but as Juniper puts down stakes we would anticipate some serious changes in market shares. The bottom line is that it’s all about innovation and positioning, for example, if Juniper can enhance the enterprise environment by introducing products that could lower the number of logical network devices that need to be managed by IT administrators that could result into a key advantage. Similar solutions could be attractive enough to disrupt the WiFi enterprise market and threaten the major vendors’ leadership.

We do see this partnership as one of many in broader enterprise access realignment (in parallel with Enterprise Small Cells market) with more to come this year and next. The enterprise and the indoor coverage and access markets have been a hot field lately with high promising revenues, on which undoubtedly Juniper wants to capitalize. This alliance is expected to pay bigger dividends in the service provider market where both companies see their strengths.

This next step for Juniper is extremely important as it joins this upcoming unified communications market in a “never too late” move. Perhaps market pressures, dynamics and the new strategic plan will force a severing of the Aruba relationship, which will most likely cease in the next six months or earlier. Time will tell.

Click for more information about Elias Aravantinos.

    

    Elias Aranvantino

    earanvantino@acgcc.com

    www.acgcc.com

Wi-Fi: The Toy that Grew Up

Historically, mobile network operators (MNOs) looked at Wi-Fi as a toy, a low-end technology that was great to off-load data from networks. Now Wi-Fi is having a strategic impact on MNOs across the globe. Now the question is LTE or Wi-Fi: remind me which one’s for off-load?

Yet, as with many technical innovations, the low-end always wins. Wi-Fi is a classic example of this theory. Through a combination of Moore’s Law, economies of scale, R&D investments and free market dynamics Wi-Fi is king of the hill. In most developed countries people and things can access a Wi-Fi network in 80% of locations. Companies, such as Devicescape, have created virtual networks based on “ambient’ Wi-Fi networks. Hotspots are so ubiquitous that Opensignal launched an application to find the best one out of the many available. Read more.

For more information about Greg Whelan, click here.

Greg Whelan
gwhelan@acgcc.com
acgcc.com

Worldwide Small Cell Market to Grow Five-fold by 2019

Medium and large enterprises will boost the small cell market indoor residential coverage, with the total small cell market expected to surpass $1 billion by 2019

The Worldwide Small Cell market grew to $134.1 million, up 2.1 percent Q-Q and up 17.5 percent Y-Y. The market was primarily driven by the high demand for better indoor coverage. Small cells are not only used to offload traffic but also for backhauling and to substitute macro networks plugging the gap between capacity and demand for data. Residential and femtocells continue to be the key drivers of the current market growth; however, new multi-operator solutions with advanced SON features and interference avoidance are expected to have a tremendous positive impact to the market.

The growth in small cell market is expected to accelerate as operators realize that small cells are an increasingly cost-effective technology to add capacity while at the same time improve cell edge performance and increase the value of the spectrum they currently hold. Plug-n-play products equipped with advanced features and the latest 802.11ac WiFi and LTE technology will also add demand pressure.

“This quarter has yet again seen many indoor deployments, which will continue to grow but are expected to shift to enterprise and public access venues in the coming years. This shift will generate new business opportunities and sources of revenue for MNOs,” states Elias Aravantinos, principal analyst, ACG. “The ongoing hype around small cells is expected to end by 2016. High data demanding LTE networks and lack of spectrum in the macro layer will force the investment and deployment of a large volume of small cells to boost backhaul, access applications and new services. In the near future the demand of Gbyte levels at the small cell layer toward 5G adoption is expected to boost deployments and significantly affect operators’ spending. Finally, the market is expected to grow at least fivefold by 2019.”

TREND and DRIVER HIGHLIGHTS

• LTE connections worldwide increase 150%, growing the demand for high-speed connectivity indoor and outdoor

• 3G and LTE multimode small cells will continue to be on demand

• Integrating WiFi network with small and macro cells will enable operators to monetize WiFi

• The market is expected to grow because of increasing mobile data access pressure and increasing LTE subs

• Enterprise environment should enable MNOs to generate new sources of revenues

• Traditional microwave and potentially satellite are the top technologies for small cell backhaul applications

Click for more information about Elias Aravantinos.

    

    Elias Aranvantino

    earanvantino@acgcc.com

    www.acgcc.com

Verizon: Are Your Future Looking Binoculars Blurry?

The trillion dollar global service provider industry is in a transformative phase. Mega mergers, hyper competition from new, nimble entrants and regulators stuck in a backwards looking time warp are just a few change vectors colliding in this big bang that are affecting carriers and vendor alike.

It’s becoming more challenging for carriers to differentiate bit transport, and they are actually accelerating this by aggressively marketing bits per second. Also, service providers are losing the narrative in IoT where the discussions are all about “the cloud” and “the thing.” Where’s the network in the narrative? Nowhere, hence it must be always there and free of course.

Forward looking service provider management teams with a good pair of future gazing binoculars realize the future is fixed and wireless access. It’s all about connecting people and things to the cloud and to each other regardless of what access network technology they are using. They want to keep people on their network, keep the billing meter running and control the user’s experience. Wireless companies that see this are buying fixed network operations, and fixed network operators are looking to add wireless technologies and services to leverage their embedded assets and subscribers.

Then there is Verizon. Fixed networks are more challenging to build and operate. Did Verizon get tired of getting dirty climbing utility poles and digging up streets? Or did they get tired of antiquated regulations, community quid pro quo (for example, kickbacks), inflexible unions and onerous pension obligations? In any case, they’ve been jettisoning fixed network operations for a while. The company sold Vermont and New Hampshire to Fairpoint and wire line assets in Arizona, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin to Frontier. Are they paying now for investing in fiber-to-the-home (FTTH, FiOS) too soon? A decade too soon? 

Currently, and for the last 10 years mobile network operators (MNO) have been on a rocket ship of revenue, profit and market sex appeal. However, new, serious threats are emerging: cable voice-over-Wi-Fi and OTT voice and SMS (for example, WhatsApp). This wireless booster rocket is running out of fuel. and MNOs need to jettison this stage of the rocket and start the next rocket or they will level off and at best be stuck in low orbit or worse crash back to earth. What this rocket will look like is anyone’s guess. Yet, it’s a safe bet it will be a combination of 5G, massive IoT AND fixed networks.

Thus, if Verizon’s strategy is to become a global Tier 2 or 3 wireless-only carrier they are on the right track. Perhaps all Verizon needs to do is to use a bit of glass cleaner on their binoculars?

Click for more information about Greg Whelan.

Greg Whelan
gwhelan@acgcc.com
acgcc.com

Access Insights™: Intersection of SP Business Drivers and Emerging Tech

What is “access”? Simply put, it’s about access to the cloud and between people and things.

Access is no longer fixed or wireless. Access is about connecting people and things to each other and to applications and service in “the cloud.” Thus, access is about fixed and wireless. It’s about having the right combined architecture on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood basis. This “combo” trend is having, and will continue to have, major impacts and disruptions in the access market and in the entire service provider ecosystem. New technologies, architectures and business models will emerge. Market realities are forcing carriers to offer (up to) gigabit speeds and incumbents have billions of dollars in deployed assets and architectures. All this makes Access challenging for both technical/architectural and business decision making.

Top Access Insights to Ponder

• The future of Access is Fixed and Wireless… not “or”;  SPs need to adapt organizations, so do vendors

• Gigabit Deployment Strategy: Is timing everything? Real strategic implications to the @$# Speed Test.

• Next-gen Broadband CPE architecture and business models are being disrupted; a. big risk to incumbent SPs and vendors

• WiFi: The “toy” that grew up; strategic implications abound; Wi-Fi, further proof that the “low end always wins”

• Voice over Wi-Fi: nothing but upside to cable companies; nothing but threats to MNOs.

• LTE versus. Wi-Fi: Which one is for off-load?

• Next Gen Cable Access Networks: PON Greenfield is redundant, DOCSIS Greenfield is an oxymoron

• CPE vs. Carrier Gear (plastic versus metal): Plastic companies building metal?

• SDN-NFV in Access:  It’s coming, contemplation begins

• What’s the value of vendor incumbency at inflection points? Is Access different from any other industry?

Want to discuss these points with the analyst? Contact gwhelan@acgcc.com to schedule some time explore how these insights impact your strategies and how we can create actionable plans to address and exploit them.

Greg Whelan
gwhelan@acgcc.com
acgcc.com

1Q15 Worldwide Video Infrastructure Markets at Crossroads: Where to Invest

Video impact on both fixed and wireless networks key driver for new deployments

The Worldwide Video Infrastructure markets decreased revenue in Q1 and year over year because of a general slowdown in service providers’ capital expenses, uncertainty with mega-mergers and accelerated competition. The Q1 Total Worldwide Video Infrastructure market posted revenue of $3 billion. Set-Top Box Worldwide Market Shares, which includes IPTV STBs, Cable STBs, and DTAs, increased 3.3% quarter over quarter but decreased 12.0% year over year. Cable Set-Top Box Worldwide Market Shares, which includes SD, SD+DVR, HD, HD+DVR, and Hybrid STBs, increased 8.6% Q-Q but decreased 15.5% Y-Y.

U.S. capex was down 14 percent in 1Q and is projected to be down 10 percent in 2Q. The second half of 2015 is expected to be positive, with capex ranging from 2 to 6 percent, but overall for 2015, U.S. capex is projected to decline 4 percent. Europe is projected to increase approximately 5.8 percent, APAC will be up 6 percent and CALA, which was down 4 percent last year, will grow 2.2 percent.

Service providers are at inflection point as to what to do and where to invest and are debating about staying with current infrastructure solutions, adding incremental features and capacity to current installed base. “The realization that video is just packets, albeit a lot of packets, is impacting video specific investments,” states Greg Whelan, video analyst, ACG. “Service providers are driven by content acquisition as OTT momentum continues and access network upgrades to address real and imagined gigabit competition.”

TREND and DRIVER HIGHLIGHTS

• Service providers are reluctant to make major investments in current technologies as market uncertainties weigh heavily; this is illustrated in the CMTS market, down 15% q-q and y-y. New deployments are minimal with most being upgrades and additions. New architectures such as CCAP, DOCSIS 3.1 and Remote PHY are very appealing, causing MSOs to be hesitant to commit CAPEX to existing technologies.

• The industry is doing itself a major disservice by selling on bit rate and not the value and experience of the services they provide; it is akin to digital camera megapixels. More the better? Consumers do not understand that beyond 6 Meg it really does not matter for 99 percent of the use cases; the huge file size of 10+ megabit images is less desirable and arguably useless to consumer. Same is true with gigabit.

• Content acquisition is top video priority: Big issues are all about providing compelling content and “skinny bundles” emerging as key force in industry.

Click for more information about Greg Whelan.

Contact information@acgcc.com for more information about ACG’s video services.

Greg Whelan
gwhelan@acgcc.com
acgcc.com

1Q Worldwide Mobile Infrastructure Markets Driven by LTE

LTE-Advanced deployment is a major industry, voice over LTE activities and high interest in end-to-end VoLTE solutions is driving the mobility market

The Worldwide Mobile Infrastructure market decreased revenue in Q1 and year over year. The Q1 Total Worldwide Mobile Infrastructure market posted revenue of $87.4 billion. Although mobile broadband net sales were primarily driven by radio technologies, and specifically LTE, the market downturn is attributed to the Ericsson’s North America decline, as most operators have completed their LTE deployments. But it is anticipated that the fast-rising data traffic could eventually require further upgrades of U.S. wireless networks to LTE-Advanced, generating opportunities for vendors.

Mobile spending was flat in the quarter and is attributed to carriers in the phase of planning to prepare for new deployments and network upgrades. Current trials with the different forms of LTE could potentially slow down spending until MNOs are convinced of the added value they bring to the networks with carrier aggregation. 3G remains strong and continues to grow as developing economies upgrade and invest in this technology. Mobile infrastructure will continue to be a highly dynamic market for the next several years as vendors and carriers are getting ready to offer new technologies such as VoLTE, network function virtualization, small cells, Hotspot 2.0, millimeter wave backhaul and DAS. Vendors with a plurality of solutions will need to have solid strategies and execution plans in this demanding environment.

“It has been an interesting quarter as the LTE key revenues shifted from North America and EMEA to Asia, which is becoming a very vibrant market across all the mobile technologies because of the large deployments and tremendous demand for mobile data,” states Elias Aravantinos, principal analyst, ACG. “However, there is ongoing 5G preparation and services convergence trend across all leading operators. This trend will result in high-performance networks. Providers are trialing new LTE forms, NFV, and virtual services as well as addressing densification affecting the small cell market and creation of a new IP voice services that support VoWiFi and VoLTE as complementary services. This is expected to increase operators’ spending the coming years.”

TREND and DRIVER HIGHLIGHTS

• Network innovations will facilitate bandwidth increases by expanding the capacity of the access network, reducing service providers’ costs, and creating new incentives for subscribers to stay on-net. For example, the benefits of LTE-Advanced include optimized heterogeneous networks with a mix of macro cells and small cells to improve coverage and reduce costs and use of multicarrier to support higher data rates.

• LTE worldwide initiatives will remain strong by the end of 2015, driving the demand for mobile backhaul, evolved packet core, and edge routing solutions; however, there will be a decrease in the mobile backhaul business when LTE roll-outs end. In 1Q some vendors benefited from a second round of investments in LTE backhaul infrastructure to raise capacity for demand. LTE TDD is gaining traction, as the LTE-TDD mode with unpaired spectrum continues to develop in all growing regions, particularly in China. LTE-Advanced systems commercially launched in more than 30 countries, expected to double in 2015.

• Market is expected to grow as operators start implementing their plans, upgrading networks because of mobile data access pressure and the LTE subs explosion. Online video will add to this data pressure because more than two-thirds of the global mobile data traffic will be video by 2017. VoLTE service and its growing demand will require, mainly in APAC and North America, more Small Cells for better coverage. Global machine to machine will triple its revenue growth mainly from international businesses.

Click for more information about Elias Aravantinos.

    

    Elias Aranvantino

    earanvantino@acgcc.com

    www.acgcc.com

Nokia-ALU Merger: Can the New European Force Race to the Wireless Top?

Following a trend I predicted in March 2015 (Intense market transformation and consolidation will be among the key 2015 wireless market features) Nokia recently announced it bought the French networking supplier Alcatel-Lucent in a deal valued at $17bn (€15.6bn). The combined company will be called Nokia Corporation, headquartered in Finland, with Rajeev Suri, continuing to serve as CEO.

The company’s goal is to “create the foundation of seamless connectivity for people and things.” Nokia plans to establish a €100m fund to invest in Internet of things startups in France following the closure of the deal, which is expected toward the end of the 2015, that is if there are no serious delays.

Alcatel-Lucent propelled by its successful growth in core networking and routing, was ranked No. 2 in edge routers in 2014 behind Cisco. The new Nokia will definitely take advantage of that position as this core networking unit will add a large percentage to the company’s total revenue. In addition, Alcatel-Lucent has managed to put together a serious wireless partner “ecosystem”, especially for metro and small cell requirements.

Alcatel-Lucent is also poised to capitalize and lead on new technologies such as 5G as the company is exploring a new air interface on the Filtered OFDM, and its strategic small cell partnership  with Qualcomm could be possibly expanded to enhance its future radio access portfolio.

Complementing this ecosystem is Nokia’s Flexizone and Flexi Radio, which covers macro and small cell layer in addition to virtualization, as the company has virtualized most of its core, RAN, as well as delving into NFV alternatives. Nokia also brings strategic partnerships with Dragonwave (mobile backhaul) and Juniper Networks (IP/routing) to the table.

However, the companies do face obstacles common in all mergers. The difficult points in this deal will be staff and product harmonization, especially related to existing customers. The company will have to deal with issues such as orchestration of product overlaps, multiple business partners (internal and external), LTE customers’ relations, and common management across USA, Europe and China. All of which could shake up the global market for quite some time.

Competitors, naturally, are digesting the impact of this gigantic deal but also realize that to stay competitive they will need to adjust their strategies as well as introduce new products as more intensive competition is anticipated across all sectors. Historically, Ericsson is used to that pressure, but this case is definitely unique and more challenging; NokAlu is expected to become a global leader in ultra-broadband, IP networking and cloud applications, has raised this competitive bar.

Investors should closely follow the new company’s milestones and stock as undoubtedly there will be many upturns and downturns before the company stabilizes. The core networking segment is a high-margin, strong performing one that should add and increase the value of NokAlu’s stock. Today, if we benchmark Nokia and Ericsson’s stock, there has not been much volatility during the past year, but there is a respectful gap in the value per share. But this merger could be a game changer.

Once the merger and its accompanying issues have been address and processes, policies staff, etc., are integrated, Nokia will be strongly positioned with a highly efficient and complete end-to end portfolio across all sectors to capture 5G global contracts. With 5G expected to be multidimensional very few vendors with innovative product portfolios will be able to comply and implement providers’ demands but with this merger Nokia will.

For more information about Elias Aravantinos click here.

    

    Elias Aranvantino

    earanvantino@acgcc.com

    www.acgcc.com

Alcatel-Lucent Raises the Broadband CPE Bar

Announces a new ONT with advanced Wi-Fi and ties in Motive to streamline smart home deployments.

On April 20, 2015, Alcatel-Lucent announced its new broadband residential gateway the 7368 Intelligent Service Access Manager (ISAM) optical network terminal (ONT). The 7368 incorporates dual-band Wi-Fi (802.11ac/n on 5GHz and 802.11b/g/n on 2.4GHz) with enhanced signal strength (Up to 500mW) to deliver better in-home coverage.

Aside from the awkward product name, it addresses a real issue in the broadband and specifically the gigabit industry: namely, delivering gigabit speeds beyond the threshold of the home. In the early days of broadband consumers’ connections from their PC to the CPE devices was greater than the broadband access connection (10 Mbps feeding 1.5 Mbps). With the deployment of gigabit networks (or more accurately “up to a gigabit networks”) the reverse was true, with 802.11n feeding 300 Mbps to the gigabit access link. Alcatel-Lucent has evened out this equation.

The images provided by Alcatel-Lucent showed the new product as a wall-mount device. Aside from looking sleek this has a number of nontechnical barriers to adoption. The big one being home decor aesthetics. Based on a limited sample, my wife, adding anything to precious wall space is a nontrivial exercise. Plus, any device added to a home has to cope with the issues of batteries (power) and backhaul. It would seem that a management interface on a smart-phone, tablet or any existing screen would be more suitable for whole home management.

The second part of the announcement was the incorporation of Motive™ customer experience management solution. ONT Easy Start” streamlines the ONT activation process and performs service orchestration between the Motive care applications and network element managers. This too solves a real business issue of gigabit deployments by reducing the time and cost of activating each subscriber.

The addition of Motive to the total offering is noteworthy. It’s always great to see large companies integrate solutions from separate product lines and business units to offer a greater solution that solves real business issues. 

Alcatel-Lucent has raised the bar in the broadband CPE market. They’ve matched the in-home speeds with the access network, improved in-home Wi-Fi coverage and simplified deployment of gigabit services to the residential market. The company solved real service provider business problems with innovative technologies.

To discuss the implications of this and other issues in the broadband access space on your company and product strategies contact ACG (lleone@acgcc.com) to schedule a briefing.

Click from more information about Greg Whelan.

Greg Whelan
gwhelan@acgcc.com
acgcc.com

De-Risking Your Investment: An ACG HotSeat Video

Now more than ever, carriers are faced with difficult decisions about their architecture. And visibility, into servers and into traffic, is one aspect that is preventing them from successful monitoring, deploying, and de-risking of their services and identifying where their problems are. Andy Huckridge, Director of Service Provider Solutions, Gigamon, and Ray Mota, CEO, ACG Research, discuss Gigamon’s strategy, market impact, and vision and how Gigamon can help carriers de-risk their investments. Andy reviews technologies, IP Voice, Voice over IMS, and Voice over Wi-Fi and Voice for LTE and discusses monitoring infrastructure, such as a visibility fabric, as well as delves into present mode of operation and the existing impact on networks. 

De-Risking Your Investment: An ACG HotSeat Video

Click for more information about ACG’s HotSeat videos.

Ray Mota

rmota@acgcc.com

www.acgcc.com

Voice over Wi-Fi: Cable versus LTE: Part II

In the article “How Big a Threat Is VoWi-Fi to the LTE Operator?” (Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8hgAzT073Q) I illustrated the potential threat cable voice-over-Wi-Fi is to the mobile network operator. In Part II of the LTE threat I look at this issue from the CxO’s point of view of each organization.

Cable executives see VoWi-Fi as “nothing but upside.” VoWi-Fi enhances customer bundles, adds new revenue opportunities and is technically achievable. From a network perspective, their HFC networks are widely deployed, minimize access point backhaul issues, and have a presence in millions of homes and small/medium businesses. This physical presence gives them instant Wi-Fi access points on which they can add voice services. Additionally, they have a voice backend, and they are well positioned to handle the additional voice traffic throughout their network. Given these strengths, they can and will move fast, hence, “nothing but upside.”

Mobile network operator (MNO) executives see Voice over Wi-Fi as “nothing but threats” to subscriber relationships, top-line revenue and profits and CAPEX flexibility. These threats are visualized in a number of ways. MNOs lack a physical presence in the home beyond the end-user devices with most users already off-loading to broadband delivered Wi-Fi for performance and data cap reasons. Although LTE backhaul networks have substantial capacity it is questionable whether they can gracefully cope with an onslaught of Wi-Fi data traffic. No company will deploy a voice-only Wi-Fi network. MNOs that do not own fixed network assets have a more daunting competitive environment; however, those that do have fixed network assets still have substantial challenges. 

Cable is not without its own challenges. Given that they will be a new entrant to the mobile voice market they must meet certain baselines of quality of service, which will add to the deployment time, cost and complexity. Cable companies will never build out an LTE network. Never is a long time but, this is a safe bet. True, they can become MVNOs or be bold and buy Sprint or T-Mobile. Without LTE cable companies will not be able to offer the coverage MNOs can.

New Wi-Fi voice and data technologies are under development. Improvements to the over-the-air protocols to address fairness and contention are emerging but VoWi-Fi technologies are nascent and standards take time. All of this will delay cable’s first mover advantage. 

MNOs have advantages as well. The biggest, as well as the most technically challenging, is intelligently leveraging their fixed and mobile networks to gain real-time insights of both networks’ end-to-end conditions such as congestion. Then, using these insights they can provide a superior quality of experience to their subscribers, particularly those deemed as high-value subscribers. For example, a default “off-load-to-Wi-Fi” strategy may not make sense for all subscribers if the Wi-Fi network is congested and the LTE network is not. 

MNOs with small cells sites can upgrade them with LTE/Wi-Fi combo devices. The MNO has already solved the tough small cell site problems (real estate, backhaul, powering, etc.) so swapping out devices is manageable. Keep in mind that these small cell sites are not randomly dispersed. They are located in high-traffic, high-value locations. This enables the MNO to quickly expand its Wi-Fi network presence in these and high-value locations. Even more powerful is the ability to add Wi-Fi to its Self- Optimizing/Organizing Network investments. 

The MNOs have a bold strategy available to them. They can move fast too, and because they have a carrier-class LTE network on which to fall back they don’t have to start with a gold plated Wi-Fi network. They state that they want to be more like web companies and deploy services fast and improve them over time. On this point, they can walk the talk and rapidly deploy a data-only Wi-Fi network that’s “good enough” and let their subscribers use it for free until they attain the level of quality they really want. A lesson from the web world is capturing customers quickly, which is paramount to success. 

Voice-over-Wi-Fi has the real potential to be a major disruption to the service provider industry. Cable companies see this as nothing but upside, whereas mobile network operators see this as nothing but threats. Both have advantages and challenges. Cable has the footprint, voice backend and potential first mover advantage. Yet, as a new mobile voice entrant they have minimum quality thresholds they must meet to be credible. MNOs, on the other hand, lack a strong physical presence in the home and may face network capacity challenges with the addition of massive amounts of Wi-Fi data traffic. However, they have the ability, if bold enough, to take a page out of the web company playbook and move even faster to deploy a “good enough” data-only Wi-Fi network using today’s technologies and their current installed infrastructures.

Want more information or to discuss strategies to dominate the game changing market of voice-over-Wi-Fi? Cable companies, mobile network operators and vendors to both industries contact ACG at sales@acgcc.com to schedule an appointment to discuss these issues with our analyst Greg Whelan. 

Greg Whelan

gwhelan@acgcc.com

acgcc.com

How Big a Threat Is VoWi-Fi to the LTE Operator?

For years Wi-Fi was looked upon as the off-load network. MNOs were glad to off load massive amounts of data traffic onto these low-end, best effort, “free” networks, providing, of course, that their LTE networks were at or near capacity. Priority one, keep the billing meter running and only off load once the meter is maxed out. How could these $100 access points running off consumer-grade best-effort broadband become a threat? After all, MNOs have spent 10s of billions on a carrier-class LTE infrastructure.

The cable operators realized that they have a near ubiquitous high-capacity network and adding Wi-Fi access points was an opportunity. As we have seen numerous times in the past, when cable companies see they have an opportunity they quickly take advantage of it. Today, Comcast claims to have more than four million access points, which will grow to eight million by the end of the year. Yes, about half of these are in subscribers’ homes where (unbeknownst to them) they are a public access point for their neighbors.

Now, along comes voice over Wi-Fi (VoWi-Fi). This solves one of the age-old industry dilemmas: Great mobile voice outside OR great mobile data inside. Small cells and DAS are solving the indoor voice problem today; however, they are starting from an installed base near zero, and deployments are nontrivial and customized per venue. Outdoor small cells also face the added challenges of power and backhaul.

Wi-Fi is as close to a ubiquitous technology you will find. Enterprises, small business and residential consumers all have become accustomed to having access to Wi-Fi everywhere. There are clearly technical challenges to deploying quality carrier-class VoWi-Fi, but these are all solvable. After all they have been solved in the LTE market. Examples include MIMO antennas, seamless roaming and improved Doppler tolerances.

Thus, one can assume that VoWi-Fi will work and will “off-load” a significant percentage of indoor voice calls from the LTE network. Should MNOs be concerned? Let’s do some simple math to try to answer this question. It’s widely reported that approximately 80% of mobile traffic originates indoors. In five years what percentage of indoor voice traffic will be on the Vo-Wi-Fi network and not on the LTE network? Let’s assume 50%. This is reasonable because iPhone and Samsung smart phones support VoWi-Fi calling, and mobile subscribers are very aware of the cost of exceeding their mobile data caps. Therefore, the MNO will see a 40% reduction in voice traffic over the RAN and EPC. The BIG question is what the impact on revenue will be. If we assume that the revenue impact is only 5%, a $20 billion/year MNO would see a $1 billion reduction in cash flow. If the cable companies only see 25% of that amount, that’s $250 million in cash to them. The difference is assumed to be lost to price reductions. 

MNOs, MSOs and service providers looking at offering VoWi-Fi services will need help to address this threat and opportunity and develop winning deployment and go-to-market strategies. Likewise, vendors in this ecosystem need to be cognizant of the multidimensional dynamics of the VoWi-Fi opportunity. ACG Research can help develop your business and marketing strategies.  We can provide a range of services from complete strategy development to creating high-impact differentiated messaging to product launch support. 

How big a threat is VoWi-Fi to the LTE operator? Today, the answer is not much. Tomorrow, the answer is simply when is tomorrow. 

Contact ACG for more information as to what we can do to help you at successfully offering VoWi-Fi services.

Greg Whelan

gwhelan@acgcc.com

acgcc.com

Demand for All Things Video, the Implications

Although video has transformed public and private networks and continues to drive network deployments it also dwarfs all other network traffic types, for example, Netflix can account for upwards of 40 percent of local Internet traffic. The massive amount of bandwidth required drives the need for capacity in all parts of the end-to-end network. If you solve this problem for video all other traffic, voice, email, web and even IoT benefits as well.  

Consumers have an unending appetite for all things video. They are watching TV shows, movies, YouTube, Vines, Facetime or Skype on every device they have. Advertisers are increasingly moving to video ads and away from static banners. Truly live TV is exclusively sports and news. Appointment TV is a thing of the past. Everything is becoming on demand.

The implications of these trends cannot be underestimated. Not only do they impact all aspects of the telecommunication and Internet ecosystem, they impact the movie and television industries in a major transformation way. As these businesses struggle to adapt to overwhelming innovative forces they only know one thing for certain: They don’t want video assets to go the way of music.

Service providers, facing a hypercompetitive zero-sum market, are attempting to adapt and upgrade their physical networks, data center, core, metro and access to support video traffic. The race to 1Gbps per home is well underway. Back office systems are adapting as well. Marketing departments are creating new service bundles with higher data caps and source funded noncap traffic, such as taking an order to sending a bill, all of which need to be supported. Legal departments are impacted too. Issues such as net neutrality, asymmetrical interconnects, must carry and spectrum acquisition are just of few of the array of legal issues facing service providers globally.

Mobile operators are in no way immune from video. As they address their coverage and capacity issues video traffic is front and center. More smart phones mean more handheld video screens, which use more bandwidth and have much longer connection times. Here too, all aspects of the mobile operators business are impacted. Small cell deployments, WiFi integration and SON plus the emerging requirements of 5G must address the demand for video.

Video might just be a lot of ones and zeros, but the impact of massive amounts of video is disrupting the entire telecommunication industry. It is safe to say that decisions made by the entire ecosystem, service providers, equipment vendors, software vendors, semiconductor vendors, must address the onslaught of video traffic.

Click here for press release information about Greg Whelan. 

Greg Whelan

gwhelan@acgresearch.net

acgresearch.net

LTE Acceleration and Mobile IP Backhaul Fuel 4Q 2012 Market Growth

4Q 2012 Mobile IP Infrastructure market grew 13.5% Y/Y, reflecting strong growth in Mobile IP Backhaul and LTE acceleration.

LTE spending in 2012 has surpassed industry expectations and will continue to grow at unprecedented levels in 2013. In 4Q 2012, GSMA confirms 32 new LTE networks were commercially launched, now totaling 134 LTE networks with subscribed customers running worldwide. Mobile data traffic doubled on global networks in 2012, and is expected to double again in 2013. The proliferation of Android and iOS is also pushing up monthly average mobile data usage; ACG estimates smartphone usage on mobile networks in 2013 will increase to an average 862MB/month, globally.

As mobile SPs undergo service development and differentiation for LTE networks, they are migrating 3G networks to serve as economy class networks for low- to mid-market segment service offerings, such as value plans, MVNO wholesale, and M2M communications. Compared to LTE investments, 3G vendors' revenues still represent the majority of total market spend but will continue to decline globally over next three years. 

4Q 2012  Worldwide  Mobile IP Infrastructure  Market Share
Vendor	Rank	Market Share
Cisco	1	36.3%
Ericsson	2	19.3%
Alcatel-Lucent	3	14.0%
NSN	4	9.7%
Huawei	5	6.5%

SON, SDN, and Virtualization: Impact on Mobile IP Network Infrastructure

ACG expects Self-Optimizing Networks (SON), Software Defined Networking (SDN), and Virtualization to have a high degree of impact to vendors providing SP Mobile IP Network Infrastructure. Many vendors have plans to announce revised product road maps and innovations at Mobile World Congress 2013.  Currently, Nokia Siemens is the only major packet core vendor shipping products using commercial off-the-shelf components using ACTA standard.

ACG expects the market to radically change and innovate with technology shifts and influences occurring in SON, SDN, and virtualization. These shifts will threaten vendors’ positions and value propositions, as network economics evolve and mobile SPs adopt distributed core architectures.

For more information about ACG Research's EPC syndicated and consulting services, contact sales@acgresearch.net.

Ray Mota

rmota@acgresearch.net

www.acgresearch.net