Set-top Box to Cloud: Thinking Outside of the Box

Until recently video viewing was done via a cable converter set-top box was required to receive extra analog cable TV channels and convert them to content capable of being displayed on a television screen. Although most U.S. customers still use cable boxes, video consumption is rapidly changing to “TV Everywhere,” where a streaming service allows you to see shows from networks and content creators anywhere, anytime and on any devices. 

Set-top boxes are no longer needed to perform the processing or recording when all these functions can now be done in the cloud. The delivery path for IP video is a direct IP connection from a consumer’s device to the content in the operator’s network. With high bandwidth and low-latency networks made possible by the roll out of fiber and the current DOCSIS standards, wireline operators are able to leverage these capabilities to offer cloud virtualization of set-top box.

Content has now migrated into the television with smart TVs offering Netflix, Roku, etc. With the growing popularity of streaming devices and the launch of new online TV subscription services from companies such as Sling and Sony, cord-cutters are increasingly moving from cable to stream everything to the screens of their devices of choice. Cable boxes may eventually become obsolete altogether, as pay TV evolves to become an app or online service. This is the virtualization of the STB in which all application execution and video streaming are in the cloud and by clicking a remote, the application is delivered as a running video stream to a client. 

There are various benefits of virtualization of STB:

• Simplifies the STB, thus  drastically reducing  CPE complexity and cost 

• Offers unlimited number of applications to customers 

• Able to run applications from multiple, different operating systems on the same client hardware

• Change the interface easily

Charter is one example; the company is upgrading its aging set-tops by using a cloud-based technology. Instead of replacing boxes in every single household, the company has built a user interface in the cloud that is being sent to existing boxes in the form of a video stream. A Charter customer can even continue to use an old remote control; the set-top box simply sends each key stroke to servers that take milliseconds to register updates as the customer browses the list of channels or programs a DVR.

ARRIS and TiVo have partnered to integrate TiVo software and cloud-based services with ARRIS’ set-top boxes to offer global service providers a variety of platform options for delivering multiscreen, TV everywhere, and DVR experiences to subscribers. The first product of this collaboration is the DCX3635 Video Gateway, which features six video tuners with eight DOCSIS downstream channels, carries one terabit of onboard storage and is capable of supporting dual simultaneous HD video transcoding sessions.

Consumers have demonstrated that they are willing to pay for high-quality premium content that meets their interests, witness the success of HBO, Showtime and other pay for content providers. The versatility of having numerous monetization options for these platforms creates the optimal climate for broadcasters to create a profitable business by streaming video through branded applications. The winners in the video race “are companies who can integrate across all devices, across all platforms with a common interface.” 

The cloud offers this opportunity, especially for those providers willing to think outside of the box.

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Meghna Zutshi
mzutshi@acgcc.com
www.acgcc.com

Arris-PACE: Consolidation, Set-top Box Domination and Tax Avoidance

Arris (USA) has agreed to acquire Pace (UK) for $2.1 billion. According to Arris the key benefits of the deal are to accelerate growth and to improve finances. The growth part is driven by the enhanced international presence and the large-scale entry in to the satellite TV market. The finance part is driven by accretive earnings and corporate taxes.

SP video is still a top five CxO top-of-mind but it’s number five; they still need a compelling video offering to complete a competitive bundle. The driving issue is access to content not number of channels. Ask 100 random people what’s the problem with TV and no one will say resolution. Sorry 4K TV manufacturers. IP video, like IP voice, is just packets, albeit a lot of packets. The impact of video delivery to all devices on all networks is much more interesting to ponder.

With the Arris-Pace deal we have the Number 1 and Number 2 global providers of set-top boxes (STB) combining. If this deal goes through the combined company will have almost 60 percent market share in Cable STBs and 44 percent of the IPTV market. The next vendor, Cisco, will have 10 percent and 15 percent of these markets, respectively. It appears Arris is intent of being the dominant provider of STBs globally.

Set-top boxes have been and continue to be a tough market to sell to. The service providers constantly demand price concessions while at the same time demanding new features. No surprise gross margins are challenging. Cisco realized this late after buying Scientific Atlanta and adopted a “high-end” STB only strategy. As I predicted two years ago this was doomed since high volume is required in this type of market. Simply put, there’s not much of a difference in semiconductor content of a low-end and a high-end STB. Those participating in the low-end, high-volume market thus have a substantial price advantage at the high-end lower volume market because they are receiving substantial volume pricing from all silicon vendors.

Beyond challenging margins, the STB market is facing technical and architectural disruptions. The traditional functionality of the STB is being repositioned between the residential gateway and the cloud, TV manufacturers want a piece of this too, and over-the-top services continue to exert pressure on the legacy linear TV functionality as well. Arris will receive some immediate near-term benefit of entry into the satellite market and will increase its international presence. The value in the long term is less clear as the set-top as we know it is in a state of flux.

On the finance side the deal is accretive: “an increase by natural growth or by gradual external addition: growth in size or extent.” According to the press release the new Arris will be based be “incorporated” in the UK but based in Suwanee GA, USA. Transactions of this ilk, where the acquirer reincorporates to the target country, are not new. You can’t fault U.S. companies from wanting to avoid excessive U.S. corporate taxes. The fundamental of micro economics encourage this.

So, I see marginal long-term strategic benefit in the set-top box area that’s outweighed by the broader portfolio synergies and financial tax gains.

 

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Greg Whelan
gwhelan@acgcc.com
acgcc.com

Arris: First Earnings Post Positive since Motorola Home Division Acquisition

In the interest of full disclosure here are my biases: When Google first announced its acquisition of Motorola Mobility, from a strategic standpoint I was mostly negative. Other than the patents, I did not see much value or a fit with culture, expertise or products. I also assume that Home Division customers were probably uncomfortable making long-term architectural commitments to Google. If the acquisition was just about patents, then Google paid a premium. During the short tenure, there was little hard information, but anecdotally, it seemed that my assessment was correct and that Motorola Home was losing momentum. When Google announced that it was selling the Moto Home division to Arris, I was mostly bullish. There was a much better fit with Arris’ culture, management expertise, and products. This purchase gave Arris a more diverse customer base.  

As with any large acquisition, assessing the long-term success is tricky especially with a dearth of information. Now, with Arris’ first earnings post acquisition, we have some more insights. Revenues grew a huge (and expected) 186 percent, roundly beating earnings expectations. Arris is moving quickly to integrate Moto, and the company is already starting to see cost savings with supply chain efficiencies. On the product side Arris is seeing significant shipments of the E6000 (mostly to Comcast), with deployments and trials in multiple geographies. The company can boast wins in infrastructure and CPE, for example, Comcast XG1 hybrid QAM IP gateway.

The negative news came primarily from Moto, which lost momentum because of Google ownership[1]. Gross margins were down to 23 percent from nearly 34 percent last year, and the traditional STB business is down 8 to 10 percent from last year. I am most concerned about the gross margin. A back of the envelope calculation reveals that Moto’s gross margins[2] are 17 percent (see the delta column in Table 1).  

The challenges of integrating the two companies, rationalizing products, processes and organizations are more straightforward because the levers of change are mostly under the company’s control, which allows it to find the duplication/inefficiencies, make tough choices and address damage control. Boosting gross margin is a greater challenge, because it takes longer and is more nuanced. External factors, such as technological change, competitive pressures, customers’ needs, and internal factors, such as product design/life cycles, and manufacturing processes, limit degrees of freedom in moving the needle.

While I am still mostly bullish on the Arris/Moto combination, there are significant challenges ahead for its management team. Increasing Moto’s gross margins is one I would put at the top of the list. 

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[1] From Robert J. Stanzione in the earnings call on August 7, 2013: “As I mentioned during our call, after the close of the Motorola Home transaction, there was a loss of momentum caused by disruptions and distractions within Motorola, as well as a parent customer reluctance to fully engage our new product initiatives, given some of the uncertainties surrounding the business.

[2] This is not the exact number as it includes some organic growth and excludes the $66M revenue/$6M margins, pre-acquisition results but is a good approximation for analysis purposes.

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David Dines
ddines@acgresearch.net
www.acgresearch.net

Arris' Aqcuisition of Motorola Home Division: Verdict, Please

Arris recently purchased Motorola Home Division. The jury is still out as to whether or not it is a wise purchase.

It was not surprising to see that Google sold the Motorola Home Division. It was clear from the outset that it was a bad fit for Google. As you may recall in previous blogs, I had suggested that Google had no expertise in running a hardware business (http://acgresearch.blogspot.com/2012/10/google-motorola-can-this-marriage-be.html), and it probably had little interest in legacy-type technology.  Although official statements to the contrary, the latest announcement and reports in the press essentially confirm my initial assessment.

On balance, I am positive about this deal. The pros: 

• Strategically, this acquisition makes sense for Arris because it greatly diversifies its product portfolio and solidifies its presence in Tier 1 MSOs in the Americas.
• There is some product overlap, (for example, CMTS and QAMs), but it is not that significant, especially given that the majority of Motorola’s revenues are derived from STBs.
• Arris has technical expertise and credibility within the industry and has experience with the design, manufacturing and selling of cable hardware.
• Arris diversifies its customer base substantially and reduces its reliance on Comcast and TWC, which are about 50 percent of total revenues.
• Arris’ management has a good track record and has delivered consistent growth over the last few years.
• The combined company is sufficiently large to compete effectively with Cisco

The concerns to watch are: 

• Execution risk: Can Arris effectively swallow a company twice its size? Will it be able to integrate the two companies fast enough to minimize loss of momentum? Will the cultures assimilate?
• Market risk: Will the combine product strategy/portfolio/roadmap meet the market transitions? Will the economic uncertainty continue to put downward pressure on SPs’ CapEx? 
• Financial Risk: Will Arris be able to increase Motorola’s historically low margins? Was the price too high?

Personally, I was glad to see Motorola end up in competent hands (the other bidder, Pace, is also a competent player in the space and would have been a good match as well). It was hard to watch the division suffer under the lack of attention, strategic vision and direction provided by Google. While we see this as a positive development, we will not know how it turns out for several years.

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David Dines
ddines@acgresearch.net
www.acgresearch.net